Delta Air Lines will retire another aircraft model from its fleet as it continues to wrestle with the “staggering” effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on commercial air travel and its earnings, which the Atlanta based carrier announced today amounted to a $7 billion pre-tax loss on a more than $11 billion decline in revenue in the year-over-year June quarter.
The Coronavirus impact on the aviation Industry
The European Commission has approved a €3.4 billion ($3.8 billion) Dutch aid measure including state loan guarantees and a direct subordinated state loan to KLM under the temporary framework adopted by the EC on March 19 to address the Covid-19 crisis.
Large aircraft operators engaged in ongoing humanitarian efforts are running into an unexpected constraint in missions to China as they trigger requirements for CCAR-129 foreign operations approvals, UAS International Trip Support is cautioning. The company has received a “huge increase” in requests for help for CCAR-129 certification, which traditionally has been a complex and lengthy process.
Reduced helicopter flight activity has translated into fewer accidents during the first six months, according to data released this morning by the U.S. Helicopter Safety Team (USHST). From January through June 2020, the U.S. industry posted 42 accidents, nine of them fatal. That compares to 69 accidents, 15 of them fatal, for the same period in 2019.
People have been stuck inside during the pandemic, and now that the economy is working to reopen everyone is ready to get back out. We still have many obstacles in front of us, but the discussion of pent-up demand is taking center stage in our client discussions for preowned business aircraft.
Aircraft pricing and costs are also top areas of discussion. Today, owners and operators, buyers and sellers, are finding varying price weaknesses in the aircraft themselves. These vary between approximately 5 percent and 20 percent off of pre-Covid pricing. Much of that spread difference depends on an aircraft’s age, capability, and pre-Covid demand.
But don’t expect preowned aircraft prices to rebound—historically, they’ve never rebounded from a downturn. Realistically, one should expect the residual loss rate to slow to a more normal rate for an aircraft between 5 percent and 10 percent annually.
Will demand come back as travel restrictions are eased or lifted? We are getting calls from prospects saying, “I will never travel on a commercial aircraft again.” As the economy opens up and we begin to learn the reality of a vaccine, we will all better understand if people really act on those sentiments. We could actually end up with a larger industry, though.
On a year-over-year basis, business aviation traffic in the U.S. was down only 7 percent over the extended Independence Day holiday weekend (July 1 to July 5), according to data released today by WingX Advance. The company said this illustrates that the segment’s recovery in the world’s key market is running apace, despite rising Covid-19 contagion and resumption of travel restrictions in some states.
Rolls-Royce on Thursday said it expects a gradual recovery of its end markets as travel restrictions ease in the coming months, but it acknowledged an “elevated” level of uncertainty in the industry outlook. In a trading update issued the same day, it now forecasts widebody engine flying hours to decline by about 55 percent this year, as more long-haul routes open up in the fourth quarter. The company continues to plan for about 250 widebody engine deliveries in 2020, based on announced build rates from its airframer customers.
Up to 36,000 United Airlines employees—roughly a third of the U.S. carrier’s global workforce—face possible involuntary furlough starting October 1 as management attempts to avoid financial ruin amid the continuing Covid-19 crisis. United informed its employees in a notice sent on Wednesday. The furlough warnings apply to 15,100 flight attendants, 2,250 pilots, 5,500 mechanics, and some 11,000 airport operations employees.
NBAA is rolling out an initiative called “BizAv Back to Work” to provide resources to help business aviation reopen and facilitate the return of the workforce that has been shaken during the Covid-19 pandemic.
This article includes additions related to Avolon's sale-leaseback transactions and to reflect an additional nine airplanes to its unfilled order total.
