Two years after a U.S.-led coalition began airstrikes over Iraq and Syria, the long, bloody and costly effort to suppress ISIS continues. Success in Iraq is now more evident, as indigenous ground forces close on the second-largest city, Mosul. But the situation on the ground in Syria remains chaotic, amidst ceasefire failures and competing forces that oppose the Assad regime. The United Nations and the Western countries participating in Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) have condemned recent airstrikes on an aid convoy and Syria’s second-largest city Aleppo by the Syrian air force or by Russian warplanes already based in Syria and Iran as indiscriminate and even as war crimes. Russia has denied responsibility for the aid convoy attack, and says that it monitors—but does not control—Syrian air force activity.
Russia this week deployed a naval task force led by the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov from Severomorsk to the eastern Mediterranean, via the North Sea, English Channel and Straits of Gibraltar. As expected, the carrier was operating MiG-29K strike fighters as well as Ka-52K attack helicopters and Su-33 air defense fighters. Ironically, the Russian task force was welcomed for a port visit by Cyprus, which houses various U.S. and UK ground and air intelligence-gathering operations that will assess the true utility of the forthcoming Russian naval-based operations over Syria.
AIN has been told that the Russian deployment of S-300VM air defense missile systems to Tartus and S-300PMs to Latakia has already caused OIR mission planners to restrict air operations over western Syria to low-observable aircraft. That effectively means only the eight USAF F-22 fighters that are deployed. The OIR nations have shown no willingness to impose a no-fly-zone over Syria, as that risks prompting a direct confrontation with Russian forces.
Poland became the 14th country to participate directly in OIR when its air force deployed four F-16C/D Block 52+ fighters to Kuwait last July. They primary role is reconnaissance, using the DB-110 imaging sensor.
At the end of September, the French aircraft carrier Charles De Gaulle deployed for a third time to support OIR with its Rafale strike fighters. NATO was poised to deploy E-3A Awacs aircraft from its jointlymanned operation in Germany last month.
The U.S. has now deployed some 4,000 troops to Iraq and at least 300 to Syria, either covertly to direct air support and advise friendly ground forces, or in overt logistics and training roles. The intelligence provided by those troops, and by an array of ISR assets, has improved targeting by OIR mission planners. But U.S. Central Command formally investigated two airstrikes on Syria in July that apparently killed scores of civilians. Centcom then admitted that an attack involving Australian, British, Danish and U.S. warplanes on September 17 mistakenly killed many Syrian government troops, rather than ISIS fighters. Such incidents notwithstanding, self-imposed constraints to minimize civilian casualties will continue to preclude the use of Western airpower for decisive effect, especially in urban areas.
Meanwhile, providers of precision-guided air munitions such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, MBDA, Raytheon, Rockwell and Sagem are benefiting from the massive use of such weapons. For instance, although the UK Royal Air Force is providing only about 10percent of the air effort, it alone has delivered some 1,500 Brimstones, Hellfires and Paveways from Reapers, Tornados and Typhoons in the past two years. The OIR coalition has now conducted nearly 10,000 airstrikes. The U.S. has been spending about $12 million per day on the operation, according to reliable estimates.
