Business aviation traffic in North America is expected to hover around 88 percent of normal over the next two months, as leisure traffic continues to buoy the segment during the pandemic, according to Argus International v-p of market intelligence Travis Kuhn. This is up from about 85 percent of normal in October, but in line with the estimate for this month.
“Recovery is purely domestic in the U.S., and being driven by leisure travel at charter and fractional operations, which were off by only about 6 percent and 11 percent, respectively, in October,” he said. Part 91 corporate flying was down about 22 percent, both for the month and year-to-date, though Kuhn said this segment is gaining momentum month-over-month. A leading indicator for recovery in corporate flight activity will be Teterboro (New Jersey) and Chicago Midway Airports, since their traffic is so reliant on business, not leisure, travel.
As has been the case during the pandemic, light jets and turboprops are faring much better than larger-cabin business jet flight activity. The former categories are off by single digits, while the latter is down by about 28 percent.
Kuhn expects overall prospects for business aviation flying to be better with the U.S. election now in the rearview mirror and looming approvals for Covid-19 vaccines. Looking further ahead, he expects February to be a “wild card” and said the first half of 2021 will be a “slow start” while the second half “could be better.”
