- October 1, 2008, 7:34 AM
Business aviation growth in Europe is down sharply on last year’s numbers, according to the latest traffic figures from Eurocontrol, suggesting that the economic slowdown has started to make people think twice before chartering a business aircraft. However, the trend toward outsourcing manufacturing to Eastern Europe and beyond, continued demand from Russia and the Middle East, and even the emergence of low-cost air taxis at the lower end of the market should enable business aviation to experience positive growth this year.
According to Eurocontrol, “Business aviation traffic growth in 2007 was about 10 percent. In the first six months of 2008, the average growth was 2 percent, and in July it was 1 percent lower than the growth in July 2007.”
Accustomed to robust growth and plentiful demand for the past several years, many in the industry are still not ready to contemplate a real slowdown. Several leading European executive charter firms told AIN that their business had not declined this year, but cracks are beginning to show elsewhere.
One charter operator, London Executive Aviation (LEA), acknowledged that it is experiencing a downturn. George Galanapoulos, LEA managing director, said that activity this year has been down about 10 percent as a direct consequence of the poor economic climate. His experience was that the smaller jets have been proving more popular, with customers becoming more cost-conscious, but he added that attracting customers for very light jets (its new fleet of Cessna Citation Mustangs) was becoming more challenging.
Looking Beyond Europe
Another charter operator, Ocean Sky, said that demand for light jets had dipped by around 5 percent this year but claimed to have seen continued strong demand for larger charter jets, driven mainly by wealthy customers from Russia and the Middle East.
Richard Aboulafia, vice president for analysis at Teal Group, told AIN that much of the growth in the European market in recent years could be attributed to Russian customers.
He also pointed to the outsourcing of manufacturing from Europe as a reason for growth in the European charter market. “Some of the growth of the European market is due to outsourcing manufacturing to Eastern Europe and Turkey. While the economic downturn hurts European manufacturers and reduces their short-term
jet demand, this process will continue. Regional off-shoring means a long-term growth market in Europe.”
According to Eric Mandemaker, CEO of the European Business Aviation Association (EBAA), “The general feeling is that the lower end of the market is somewhat slow [while] the upper end remains pretty consistent.” Aboulafia echoed that sentiment, commenting, “Europe’s economic woes seem to be pressurizing the low and middle segments of the market.”
While conceding that the economy is “showing a bit of a downturn,” Mandemaker said that EBAA is remaining bullish and is “in the process of looking into ways and means of getting new messages and information across to those businessmen who have as yet not enjoyed the advantages of business aviation.”
Stephanie McWilliam, managing director of Private Air Travel, which offers businesses shares in smaller aircraft, said, “I expect it [the economic downturn] might work well for us in the medium term.” She also commented, “With the business-class carriers [Silverjet, Eos and so on] going kaput, presumably their clients will be looking for alternatives and might, in due course, turn to private ownership instead.”
One operator that might benefit from more cost-conscious business jet users is start-up air taxi operator Blink, believes CEO Peter Leiman. Blink currently operates a single Cessna Citation Mustang, and it has no plans to change the rate at which it will add the rest of the airplanes to its 45-Mustang fleet by early 2010.
Leiman said Blink customers are either trading down in size of private jet, or moving up from business-class travel on the airlines. Although he expects more of the latter, he claims to have received “a large number” of calls from NetJets card users, as costs of Blink are “around 50 to 60 percent lower.” He used the example of a customer with a Global Express opting to use Blink’s Mustang for a trip to Geneva, Barcelona and back to London Farnborough (where TAG Aviation UK handles Blink’s aircraft), rather than a competitor’s larger airplane.
“We believe that we’re creating a new market. Fifty percent of our user base is first-time business jet users,” he said. The company is also considering another two bases, which will ultimately reduce one-way fares because the return legs can be filled.
Leiman maintained that the company benefits from higher fuel prices because fuel costs account for 15 percent of Blink’s expenses, significantly less than the percentage for most business aircraft, let alone airliners. And with many corporations cutting back business travel costs, Blink appears set to benefit again, although it will be against a net weakening of demand at the lower end of the market.
The new Isle of Man aircraft registry (the ‘M’ register), established in May 2007, also seems to be bucking any downward trend as business continues to be brisk, Brian Johnson, director of civil aviation for the Isle of Man, told AIN. “We are still busy,” said Johnson. “There appears to be no slowdown in the number of applications for registration of private and corporate jets. We have registered 84 aircraft–including our first Boeing BBJ–in our first 16 months.” Johnson said the Isle of Man registered its first Falcon 7X last month and its first new Airbus A340 initially as a “green” airframe this month.
According to Eurocontrol, “Business aviation traffic growth in 2007 was about 10 percent. In the first six months of 2008, the average growth was 2 percent, and in July it was 1 percent lower than the growth in July 2007.”
Accustomed to robust growth and plentiful demand for the past several years, many in the industry are still not ready to contemplate a real slowdown. Several leading European executive charter firms told AIN that their business had not declined this year, but cracks are beginning to show elsewhere.
One charter operator, London Executive Aviation (LEA), acknowledged that it is experiencing a downturn. George Galanapoulos, LEA managing director, said that activity this year has been down about 10 percent as a direct consequence of the poor economic climate. His experience was that the smaller jets have been proving more popular, with customers becoming more cost-conscious, but he added that attracting customers for very light jets (its new fleet of Cessna Citation Mustangs) was becoming more challenging.
Looking Beyond Europe
Another charter operator, Ocean Sky, said that demand for light jets had dipped by around 5 percent this year but claimed to have seen continued strong demand for larger charter jets, driven mainly by wealthy customers from Russia and the Middle East.
Richard Aboulafia, vice president for analysis at Teal Group, told AIN that much of the growth in the European market in recent years could be attributed to Russian customers.
He also pointed to the outsourcing of manufacturing from Europe as a reason for growth in the European charter market. “Some of the growth of the European market is due to outsourcing manufacturing to Eastern Europe and Turkey. While the economic downturn hurts European manufacturers and reduces their short-term
jet demand, this process will continue. Regional off-shoring means a long-term growth market in Europe.”
According to Eric Mandemaker, CEO of the European Business Aviation Association (EBAA), “The general feeling is that the lower end of the market is somewhat slow [while] the upper end remains pretty consistent.” Aboulafia echoed that sentiment, commenting, “Europe’s economic woes seem to be pressurizing the low and middle segments of the market.”
While conceding that the economy is “showing a bit of a downturn,” Mandemaker said that EBAA is remaining bullish and is “in the process of looking into ways and means of getting new messages and information across to those businessmen who have as yet not enjoyed the advantages of business aviation.”
Stephanie McWilliam, managing director of Private Air Travel, which offers businesses shares in smaller aircraft, said, “I expect it [the economic downturn] might work well for us in the medium term.” She also commented, “With the business-class carriers [Silverjet, Eos and so on] going kaput, presumably their clients will be looking for alternatives and might, in due course, turn to private ownership instead.”
One operator that might benefit from more cost-conscious business jet users is start-up air taxi operator Blink, believes CEO Peter Leiman. Blink currently operates a single Cessna Citation Mustang, and it has no plans to change the rate at which it will add the rest of the airplanes to its 45-Mustang fleet by early 2010.
Leiman said Blink customers are either trading down in size of private jet, or moving up from business-class travel on the airlines. Although he expects more of the latter, he claims to have received “a large number” of calls from NetJets card users, as costs of Blink are “around 50 to 60 percent lower.” He used the example of a customer with a Global Express opting to use Blink’s Mustang for a trip to Geneva, Barcelona and back to London Farnborough (where TAG Aviation UK handles Blink’s aircraft), rather than a competitor’s larger airplane.
“We believe that we’re creating a new market. Fifty percent of our user base is first-time business jet users,” he said. The company is also considering another two bases, which will ultimately reduce one-way fares because the return legs can be filled.
Leiman maintained that the company benefits from higher fuel prices because fuel costs account for 15 percent of Blink’s expenses, significantly less than the percentage for most business aircraft, let alone airliners. And with many corporations cutting back business travel costs, Blink appears set to benefit again, although it will be against a net weakening of demand at the lower end of the market.
The new Isle of Man aircraft registry (the ‘M’ register), established in May 2007, also seems to be bucking any downward trend as business continues to be brisk, Brian Johnson, director of civil aviation for the Isle of Man, told AIN. “We are still busy,” said Johnson. “There appears to be no slowdown in the number of applications for registration of private and corporate jets. We have registered 84 aircraft–including our first Boeing BBJ–in our first 16 months.” Johnson said the Isle of Man registered its first Falcon 7X last month and its first new Airbus A340 initially as a “green” airframe this month.
